Effect of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Along the Coastline of Mumbai in 2050-using MIKE 21

Authors

  • Chakraborty Sudipta Research Scholar , Civil Engineering Department, The Assam Royal Global University Betkuchi NH 37 Guwahati Assam 781035 India
  • Kambekar A.R
  • Sarma Arnab

Keywords:

SLR, IPCC, MIKE 21, Scenario, Climate Change

Abstract

Sea-level rise being one of the most significant effects of climate change have grabbed the attention of the world. Although the exact forecast of rise of sea level remains uncertain, many projections for high emission scenarios from individual studies were found much greater than likely range of 1 m of the 21st century SLR given in AR5 of IPCC. Moreover, due to the additional load from melt ice the Sea Level Rise is escalating in recent years. As per IPCC AR5 (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) climate simulator model at local level SLR at Mumbai coast is 1.24 m, 0.94 m, 0.81 m above MSL under RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 respectively.. Vulnerability of Mumbai to Sea Level Rise ranks 2nd amongst 136 coastal cities in the world, while Guangzhou (in China) tops the list and next to Mumbai is New Orleans (in Louisiana, USA). Mumbai being a very old reclaimed city with antique drainage system is flood-prone in monsoons. Being the Financial Capital of India further inundation arising out of Sea Level Rise is a matter of grave concern. In this paper the expected Sea Level Rise at the coast of Mumbai in 2050 has been attempted to be determined by the climate change tool using Grinsted's method with the help of Mike 21 FM HD Software, the state-of-the-art software from Danish Hydraulic Institute and the probable consequences has been presented.

Author Biography

  • Chakraborty Sudipta, Research Scholar , Civil Engineering Department, The Assam Royal Global University Betkuchi NH 37 Guwahati Assam 781035 India
    Born on December 05,1957 at Shalboni in West Midnapur District in the state of West Bengal, India, Sudipta Chakraborty had his schooling in Midnapur Collegiate School and had his graduation in Civil Engineering from Indian Institute of Engineering Science and Technology, Shibpore (Erstwhile known as Bengal Engineering College) in 1978. He had M. Tech in Aerospace Engineering from Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur. He is an alumnus of International Institute of Insfrastructure, Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Delft, The Netherlands, a Fellow of Institution of Engineers (India) and a Life Member Of PIANC, Belgium. Sudipta had worked for 26 Years at Haldia, the deep-drafted satellite port, in India’s only Riverine Port of Kolkata. During his professional journey through the career ladder upto the position of Head of the Infrastructure Division, over the years he was deeply associated with various capital development projects of Haldia Port. After parting from port services in 2008 he later worked in various reputed construction and consultancy firms. He was associated with very large marine infrastructure works like Dredging of 33KM long channel of Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust and Mumbai Harbour, Reclamation of 90 Hectare of land from Arabian Sea for the Container Terminal of ‘Port of Singapore Authority’ within Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, Mumbai, Multimodal Inland Water Terminal at River Ganges at Varanasi etc. Sudipta has a few monographs published in International Journals from London, Denmark, Singapore etc. He is a reviewer of papers for International Conference on Coasts & Ports, Australia. Presently Sudipta is a Consultant to some World Bank Aided Ferry Terminal Projects on Brahmaputra River, Assam and a researcher in Coastal Engineering. Climate Change and the resulting Sea Level Rise is a topic of concern to the humankind as it poses threat to all the Coastal Cities. This book is a narrative anthology on various aspects of sea level rise for making the people aware of the situation, what’s happening, what’s going to happen and what can be done about it. In addition to his experiences, and knowledge gathered through widespread research on the topic-the scientific truths, reasons for global warming, effect on sea level rise and its consequences, the policies, the adaptation strategies, societal concerns etc. has been collated and the author expressed his serious concerns about the conditions and raises question in his book Sea Level Rise : Are we ready(https://www.amazon.in/Sea-Level-Rise-Are-Ready-ebook/dp/B08KYKH2NB)

References

RoBeRT J. NichollS; Planning for the impacts of Sea level Rise; The official Journal of The Oceanography Society, USA Oceanography 24(2):144–157, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2011.34

Luis M. Abadie, Luke P. Jackson, Elisa Sainz de Murieta, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Ibon Galarraga; Comparing urban coastal flood risk in 136 cities under two alternative sea-level projections: RCP 8.5 and an expert opinion-based high-end scenario; Ocean and Coastal Management 193 (2020)105249; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2020.105249.

El Sioufi, M., Climate change and sustainable cities: major challenges facing cities and urban settlements in the coming decades. United Nations Human Settlement Programme (UN-HABITAT), 2010.

The manual of mike powered by dhi (Climate Change Scientific Doc-2017)

Gerald A. Meehl, G. J. Boer, C. Covey, M. Latif, R. J. Stouffer; Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2000, Volume 81, Issue 2, PP: 313-318; The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP); http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0313:TCMIPC

>2.3.CO;2

Grinsted, A., Moore, J.C. & Jevrejeva, S. Reconstructing Sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD. Clim Dyn. 34, 461–472 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2

Horton, R., C. Herweijer, C. Rosenzweig, J. Liu, V. Gorlitz, and A.C. Ruane (2008), Sea level rise projections for current generation CGCMs based on the semi-empirical method, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02715, doi: 10.1029/2007GL032486.Martin Vermeer, Stefan Rahmstorf; Global Sea level linked to global temperature; PNAS, December 22, 2009, vol. 106, no. 51, 21527–21532; www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0907765106

Rahmstorf, S., Perrette, M. & Vermeer, M. Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections. Clim. Dyn. 39, 861–875 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7

Ali Dastgheib, Roshanka Ranasinghe, (2014) Unesco-IHE, ADB; Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios Cauvery delta zone, Tamil Nadu, India; https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/linked-documents/44429-013-sd-05.pdf

Martin Vermeera, and Stefan Rahmstorf; Global Sea level linked to global temperature; PNAS, December 22, 2009, vol. 106, no. 51, 21527–21532; www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.

Viviek V. Joe, Saravanan S. and Chandrasekar N.; Coastal Vulnerability and Shoreline Changes for Southern Tip of India Remote Sensing and GIS Approach; Earth Science & Climatic Change; 2013, 4:4; http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.1000144

Downloads

Published

2021-12-31

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 3 (2021)

Section

Research Article

License

Declaration and Copyright Transfer Form

(to be completed by authors)

I/ We, the undersigned author(s) of the submitted manuscript, hereby declare, that the above manuscript which is submitted for publication in the STM Journals(s), is not published already in part or whole (except in the form of abstract) in any journal or magazine for private or public circulation, and, is not under consideration of publication elsewhere.

  • I/We will not withdraw the manuscript after 1 week of submission as I have read the Author Guidelines and will adhere to the guidelines.
  • I/We Author(s ) have niether given nor will give this manuscript elsewhere for publishing after submitting in STM Journal(s).
  • I/ We have read the original version of the manuscript and am/ are responsible for the thought contents embodied in it. The work dealt in the manuscript is my/ our own, and my/ our individual contribution to this work is significant enough to qualify for authorship.
  •  I/We also agree to the authorship of the article in the following order:

Author’s name                                    

 

1. ________________

2. ________________

3. ________________

4. ________________

 

We  Author(s) tick this box and would request you to consider it as our signature as we agree to the terms of this Copyright Notice, which will apply to this submission if and when it is published by this journal.