Open Access
Subscription or Fee Access
Effect of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Along the Coastline of Mumbai in 2050-using MIKE 21
Abstract
Sea-level rise being one of the most significant effects of climate change have grabbed the attention of the world. Although the exact forecast of rise of sea level remains uncertain, many projections for high emission scenarios from individual studies were found much greater than likely range of 1 m of the 21st century SLR given in AR5 of IPCC. Moreover, due to the additional load from melt ice the Sea Level Rise is escalating in recent years. As per IPCC AR5 (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) climate simulator model at local level SLR at Mumbai coast is 1.24 m, 0.94 m, 0.81 m above MSL under RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 respectively.. Vulnerability of Mumbai to Sea Level Rise ranks 2nd amongst 136 coastal cities in the world, while Guangzhou (in China) tops the list and next to Mumbai is New Orleans (in Louisiana, USA). Mumbai being a very old reclaimed city with antique drainage system is flood-prone in monsoons. Being the Financial Capital of India further inundation arising out of Sea Level Rise is a matter of grave concern. In this paper the expected Sea Level Rise at the coast of Mumbai in 2050 has been attempted to be determined by the climate change tool using Grinsted's method with the help of Mike 21 FM HD Software, the state-of-the-art software from Danish Hydraulic Institute and the probable consequences has been presented.
Keywords
References
RoBeRT J. NichollS; Planning for the impacts of Sea level Rise; The official Journal of The Oceanography Society, USA Oceanography 24(2):144–157, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2011.34
Luis M. Abadie, Luke P. Jackson, Elisa Sainz de Murieta, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Ibon Galarraga; Comparing urban coastal flood risk in 136 cities under two alternative sea-level projections: RCP 8.5 and an expert opinion-based high-end scenario; Ocean and Coastal Management 193 (2020)105249; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2020.105249.
El Sioufi, M., Climate change and sustainable cities: major challenges facing cities and urban settlements in the coming decades. United Nations Human Settlement Programme (UN-HABITAT), 2010.
The manual of mike powered by dhi (Climate Change Scientific Doc-2017)
Gerald A. Meehl, G. J. Boer, C. Covey, M. Latif, R. J. Stouffer; Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2000, Volume 81, Issue 2, PP: 313-318; The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP); http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0313:TCMIPC
>2.3.CO;2
Grinsted, A., Moore, J.C. & Jevrejeva, S. Reconstructing Sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD. Clim Dyn. 34, 461–472 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2
Horton, R., C. Herweijer, C. Rosenzweig, J. Liu, V. Gorlitz, and A.C. Ruane (2008), Sea level rise projections for current generation CGCMs based on the semi-empirical method, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L02715, doi: 10.1029/2007GL032486.Martin Vermeer, Stefan Rahmstorf; Global Sea level linked to global temperature; PNAS, December 22, 2009, vol. 106, no. 51, 21527–21532; www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0907765106
Rahmstorf, S., Perrette, M. & Vermeer, M. Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections. Clim. Dyn. 39, 861–875 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7
Ali Dastgheib, Roshanka Ranasinghe, (2014) Unesco-IHE, ADB; Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios Cauvery delta zone, Tamil Nadu, India; https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/linked-documents/44429-013-sd-05.pdf
Martin Vermeera, and Stefan Rahmstorf; Global Sea level linked to global temperature; PNAS, December 22, 2009, vol. 106, no. 51, 21527–21532; www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.
Viviek V. Joe, Saravanan S. and Chandrasekar N.; Coastal Vulnerability and Shoreline Changes for Southern Tip of India Remote Sensing and GIS Approach; Earth Science & Climatic Change; 2013, 4:4; http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.1000144
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.